UK must cut carbon emissions, or face the consequences

Britain may be well placed to meet its carbon-reduction targets, but falling short could result in political chagrin, EU fines and damage to industry

Failure to meet the UK's pledges to cut carbon emissions would likely result in fines for the government, a higher chance of dangerous climate change and reduced competitiveness for green British businesses.

Although the UK's contribution to a warming planet is relatively small – around 2% of global emissions – it has a large historical responsibility and was still the world's 10th biggest emitter in 2009, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Britain is committed to cutting its carbon emissions on three main fronts. The first commitment, to cut emissions by 8% on 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012 under the international Kyoto Protocol, is easy. A move from carbon-intensive coal-fired power plants to lower-carbon gas ones and the recent recession mean the UK is well on track to meet its obligations to the UN-brokered treaty. World leaders have so far failed to agree to a successor to Kyoto.

At home, the UK has led the world by enshrining carbon cuts in law under the 2008 Climate Change Act. The act calls on the coalition – and successive governments – to cut emissions by at least 34% by 2020, and 80% by 2050, against 1990 levels. To hit those targets, the government's independent climate watchdog, the Committee on Climate Change, has set three "carbon budgets", for the periods 2008-2012, 2013-2017 and 2018-2022. Beyond the political embarrassment if the budgets were overshot, the government of the day would be obliged to tell parliament how it proposes to compensate for those excess emissions.

Climate change

David Kennedy, chief executive of the Committee on Climate Change, says: "It is vital that we act now to reduce emissions through investing in energy efficiency improvement, clean energy and clean transport. This will place us well for the deep emissions cuts that are required here over the next decades. Together with action in other countries, this will limit risks of dangerous climate change, and bring significant economic benefits."

He adds: "The urgent challenge for the government is to put in place new policies to drive down emissions and develop new clean technologies. We need to move from talking about reducing emissions to doing this in practice."

In addition to these self-imposed targets, the UK has an EU target of cutting emissions by 20% by 2020. Those cuts must come partly through the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), a carbon-trading scheme designed to curb emissions from big polluters in the power and manufacturing sector and – from 2012 – aviation. While unlikely, a failure to hit the European targets would be a blow to the credibility of carbon trading as a mechanism for cutting emissions.

Hypothetically, the UK would also face the EC's infringement procedure, which could lead to legal action before the European court of justice and, ultimately, fines. The UK already faces potential EC fines for London's high levels of air pollution.

The competitive power of British industry could be hit if carbon targets are not met, say industry figures. Nick Medic, head of communications at trade body RenewableUK, says: "We are seeing a very strong pipeline of [renewable energy] projects in construction which, added to our current capacity, already take us over the halfway mark to 2020. But, we must also be aware that we have now reached a critical momentum; any perception that we are slowing down could disrupt confidence."

He adds: "Growth in renewable electricity contributions to the grid, a very strong growth in employment and a marked pick up in investor interest all rest on the assumption that we are on course to reach the targets.."

Connie Hedegaard, the European commissioner for climate action, last year warned that the EU needed carbon targets for 2030 and 2050 to ensure Europe remains competitive with China on green technology. "We should take care not to be too complacent," she told business leaders at the European Policy Centre, adding that if Europe wanted to lead on exporting such technology, it must not "sit on its hands".

Economists and energy experts also warn of the financial costs if targets are not met and temperatures are allowed to rise dangerously high. Each year the world delays moving to stop temperatures rising by 2C, it increases the cost of investment needed to reach a low-carbon economy by $500bn (£314bn), says the International Energy Agency. And as the Gordon Brown-commissioned Stern report famously said, acting on emissions now is cheaper than dealing with the impacts of climate


by Adam Vaughan