The demand for renewable energy will overtake the need for oil for the first time ever, according to BP’s latest projection of energy trends - the BP Energy Outlook 2030.
According to the oil giant's analysis, the diversification of energy sources will increase and non-fossil fuels (nuclear, hydro and renewables) are together expected to be the biggest source of growth for the first time.
Between 2010 to 2030 the contribution to energy growth of renewables (solar, wind, geothermal and biofuels) is seen to increase from 5% to 18%.
According to the report, natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing fossil fuel, and coal and oil are likely to lose market share as all fossil fuels experience lower growth rates.
It forecasts fossil fuels’ contribution to primary energy growth is projected to fall from 83% to 64%. and OECD oil demand peaked in 2005 and in 2030 is projected to be roughly back at its level in 1990. Biofuels will account for 9% of global transport fuels.
The BP Energy Outlook 2030 is the first of BP’s forward-looking analyses to be published, after 60 years of producing definitive historical data in the BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
In launching the BP Energy Outlook 2030, Group Chief Executive Bob Dudley said: “The issues covered in this document are huge ones – the effort to provide energy to fuel the global economy, sustainably, in an era of unprecedented growth. I believe one of our responsibilities is to share the information we have, to inform the debate on energy, and now on climate change.”
“What producers, governments and consumers all want is secure, affordable and sustainable energy. But on a global scale, this remains an aspiration. And to meet that aspiration over the next two decades, we need smart, market-oriented policies to deliver the energy we need in a manageable way – without inhibiting economic development or jeopardising the improvements in living standards now being experienced by billions of people worldwide.”
“I need to emphasize that the BP Energy Outlook 2030 base case is a projection, not a proposition. It is our dispassionate view of what we believe is most likely to happen on the basis of the evidence.
“For example, we are not as optimistic as others about progress in reducing carbon emissions. But that doesn’t mean we oppose such progress. As you probably know, BP has a 15-year record of calling for more action from governments, including the wide application of a carbon price.
“Our base case assumes that countries continue to make some progress on addressing climate change, based on the current and expected level of political commitment. But overall, for me personally, it is a wake-up call.”
The report says the strong carbon policy drive in OECD countries risks being more than offset by growth in emerging economies.
According to the analysis, wind, solar, bio-fuels and other renewables will continue to grow strongly, increasing their share in primary energy from less than 2% now to more than 6% projected by 2030. Biofuels will provide 9% of transport fuels and nuclear and hydropower will grow steadily and gain market share in total energy consumption.
The US and Brazil will continue to dominate biofuel production with 76% of total output in 2010 but falling to 68% in 2030 as output from Asia-Pacific begins to rise.
“The global fuel mix continues to diversify – but for the first time, non-fossil fuels will be major sources of supply growth,” said Rühl.
Environmental policy The Energy Outlook 2030 assumes continued policy action to address concerns about both climate change and energy security, based on the current trend of political commitment. BP has developed an alternative ‘policy case’ to explore the implications of a significant increase in the level of political commitment which translates into a tightening of policy.
“The key focus of the policy case is to reduce dependence on carbon intensive fuels. This can be achieved through a wide range of policy instruments, including various ways of putting a price on carbon,” said Rühl.
“In BP’s policy case “global emissions peak just after 2020, but will still be 20% above 2005 levels. The emissions path is still expected to be well above the International Energy Agency’s 450 Scenario, indicating how much more effort will be required after 2030 to put the world onto a ‘safe’ path.”
Rühl explained a cut in emissions in the policy case would be achieved through a combination of more rapid efficiency gains, fuel switching – from gas to coal and from fossil fuels to nuclear, hydro and renewables – and the introduction of carbon capture and storage (CCS) for both coal and gas power plants.
by ClickGreen
According to the oil giant's analysis, the diversification of energy sources will increase and non-fossil fuels (nuclear, hydro and renewables) are together expected to be the biggest source of growth for the first time.
Between 2010 to 2030 the contribution to energy growth of renewables (solar, wind, geothermal and biofuels) is seen to increase from 5% to 18%.
According to the report, natural gas is projected to be the fastest growing fossil fuel, and coal and oil are likely to lose market share as all fossil fuels experience lower growth rates.
It forecasts fossil fuels’ contribution to primary energy growth is projected to fall from 83% to 64%. and OECD oil demand peaked in 2005 and in 2030 is projected to be roughly back at its level in 1990. Biofuels will account for 9% of global transport fuels.
The BP Energy Outlook 2030 is the first of BP’s forward-looking analyses to be published, after 60 years of producing definitive historical data in the BP Statistical Review of World Energy.
In launching the BP Energy Outlook 2030, Group Chief Executive Bob Dudley said: “The issues covered in this document are huge ones – the effort to provide energy to fuel the global economy, sustainably, in an era of unprecedented growth. I believe one of our responsibilities is to share the information we have, to inform the debate on energy, and now on climate change.”
“What producers, governments and consumers all want is secure, affordable and sustainable energy. But on a global scale, this remains an aspiration. And to meet that aspiration over the next two decades, we need smart, market-oriented policies to deliver the energy we need in a manageable way – without inhibiting economic development or jeopardising the improvements in living standards now being experienced by billions of people worldwide.”
“I need to emphasize that the BP Energy Outlook 2030 base case is a projection, not a proposition. It is our dispassionate view of what we believe is most likely to happen on the basis of the evidence.
“For example, we are not as optimistic as others about progress in reducing carbon emissions. But that doesn’t mean we oppose such progress. As you probably know, BP has a 15-year record of calling for more action from governments, including the wide application of a carbon price.
“Our base case assumes that countries continue to make some progress on addressing climate change, based on the current and expected level of political commitment. But overall, for me personally, it is a wake-up call.”
The report says the strong carbon policy drive in OECD countries risks being more than offset by growth in emerging economies.
According to the analysis, wind, solar, bio-fuels and other renewables will continue to grow strongly, increasing their share in primary energy from less than 2% now to more than 6% projected by 2030. Biofuels will provide 9% of transport fuels and nuclear and hydropower will grow steadily and gain market share in total energy consumption.
The US and Brazil will continue to dominate biofuel production with 76% of total output in 2010 but falling to 68% in 2030 as output from Asia-Pacific begins to rise.
“The global fuel mix continues to diversify – but for the first time, non-fossil fuels will be major sources of supply growth,” said Rühl.
Environmental policy The Energy Outlook 2030 assumes continued policy action to address concerns about both climate change and energy security, based on the current trend of political commitment. BP has developed an alternative ‘policy case’ to explore the implications of a significant increase in the level of political commitment which translates into a tightening of policy.
“The key focus of the policy case is to reduce dependence on carbon intensive fuels. This can be achieved through a wide range of policy instruments, including various ways of putting a price on carbon,” said Rühl.
“In BP’s policy case “global emissions peak just after 2020, but will still be 20% above 2005 levels. The emissions path is still expected to be well above the International Energy Agency’s 450 Scenario, indicating how much more effort will be required after 2030 to put the world onto a ‘safe’ path.”
Rühl explained a cut in emissions in the policy case would be achieved through a combination of more rapid efficiency gains, fuel switching – from gas to coal and from fossil fuels to nuclear, hydro and renewables – and the introduction of carbon capture and storage (CCS) for both coal and gas power plants.
by ClickGreen
Thanks for this interesting article Stuart. I read a report by the Crown Estate relating to the offshore wind industry in the UK.
ReplyDeleteI have written a blog which highlights the stumbling blocks we have to overcome here in the UK in order to make the most of our supply chain possibilities. A the windiest place in Europe it makes perfect sense for us to take advantage of the business and job opportunties which will surely come off the back of this development.
My article can be accessed here: http://bit.ly/9P4n99
Rowena